Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Decline Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Figures

The average figure of everyday killings each month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent government data. Nevertheless, public safety experts have advised that murder numbers might not point to improved countrywide security.

Notable Decline in Daily Figures

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in November as opposed to almost 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in the previous September. This information was provided by the head of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we have seen in these months is very important,” Sheinbaum said, noting that in November the smallest amount of murders were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the government’s heavily military operations to confront the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The rate reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over four times higher than that of the United States. However, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety plan for an seemingly steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the President said: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The central components of the President's security plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation work.
• Increased cooperation between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

However, security researchers cautioned that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is notably true considering the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“That would be very good information if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not reliable for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the desire to accurately identify and classify bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of everyday homicides was similarly concerning because it could mask days when there were notably elevated numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day mean makes high peaks of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can cite the success of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to government data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

Yet despite these measures, Mexico remains beset by high violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. Recently there was a notable murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to build a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” Vargas said.