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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.